FROM VISION TO VOLATILITY: TPF's Take on 2025 Market Momentum

By Jake Wilson, TPF Relationship Manager

With the financial markets continuing to climb (albeit taking the scenic route) and headlines shifting daily, TPF’s latest webinar, “The Word on the Street, August 2025: A Mid-Year Conversation on Investment Philosophy, Performance & Perspective,” offered timely insights into what’s truly driving portfolio results so far in 2025.

Hosted by John Furlow, TPF’s Executive Vice President, joined by Keith Reynolds and Alan Kosan of Segal Marco Advisors, the conversation was dynamic, thoughtful, and filled with practical guidance for investors navigating today’s volatile financial landscape.

We understand how busy schedules can get, so if you weren’t able to join us live, we encourage you to watch the recording on-demand here.

In fact, I just rewatched the recording of the webinar myself, and here are a few key takeaways that I gathered:

1. Despite Market Volatility, TPF Funds Remain Strong

While the first half of 2025 has been marked by heightened market volatility, the TPF Funds have delivered solid performance—both in absolute terms and relative to their benchmarks.

Some of the standout performers worth highlighting include:

TPF Balanced Fund: Continued to illustrate why it is our flagship investment product and fan-favorite amongst TPF Partners by handily outperforming its benchmarks while utilizing broad diversification to help smooth ongoing storms of volatility. The Fund’s consistency is illustrated by outperforming the index by over two-thirds of the time over the course of 20+ years.

TPF Large Cap Equity Fund: Continued strong corporate performance in the U.S., coupled with savvy strategies and discipled approaches from our active managers, has driven robust returns.  YTD (6/30/25), the TPF Large Cap Equity Fund (7.9%) has outperformed the Russell 1000 Index (6.1%) by a notable 1.8%.

TPF International and Emerging Markets Equity Funds: Benefiting from easing global trade tensions, a weakening U.S. dollar, and favorable international dynamics, the recent strong performance has been refreshing considering these sectors have been somewhat out of favor compared to domestic markets over the last several years. The underlying active managers within TPF’s International Equity Fund (21.8%) and Emerging Markets Equity Fund (15.3%) added a couple of cherries on top by enabling the Funds to outperform their respective indexes YTD.

TPF Fixed Income Fund: Provided consistent income and stability, helping to reduce overall portfolio volatility. The true strength of this Fund is even more apparent when looking at performance over longer time periods.

It was an interesting note that one of our historically top-performing offerings, the TPF Small Cap Equity Fund, had given up a little ground in the first half of the year. However, we remain fully confident in this superstar of a Fund’s long-term value and the quality of its underlying managers going forward.

2. Market Overview: Cautious Optimism with a Close Eye on Rates, Tariffs, and Geopolitics

The panelists discussed how the current economic environment—characterized by slowing inflation and potential interest rate cuts—has supported investor sentiment, though not without caution. Corporate earnings remain resilient, and global markets have shown signs of stabilization, but volatility is likely to persist, particularly with tariff uncertainty.

A general takeaway was that TPF’s active managers are confident in sticking with their respective core strategies and long-term investment fundamentals. That said, our managers do continue to monitor portfolios to navigate ongoing volatile waters while maintaining flexibility and long-term resilience. A key benefit of TPF’s complementary active multi-manager strategy is the ability to participate in up markets while continuing to maintain a level of downside protection.

The discussion also offered a look into how some of TPF’s trusted managers, including LSV Asset Management, William Blair, Sands Capital, Eagle Capital Management, Disciplined Growth Investors, Burgundy Asset Management, Kayne Anderson, Artisan, Silchester, Wasatch Global Investors, and RBC Global Asset Management, are adapting their strategies in response to current market conditions. Themes included:

• Selective exposure to growth and innovation sectors.
• Careful balancing of risk and reward in active equity managers.
• Maintaining a long-term view despite short-term noise.
• Impressive tenure of many of TPF’s underlying managers.

3. The Crypto Question

As digital assets continue to draw attention from investors, the conversation turned to cryptocurrencies. While momentum in this space is undeniable, and cryptocurrency appears to be here to stay, both TPF and our consulting partners at Segal Marco do not view cryptocurrencies as suitable for churches and most institutional investor portfolios currently, given the high volatility, limited transparency, and evolving regulatory landscape.

Catch the Replay

Whether you’re looking to understand current market dynamics, review fund performance, or hear from seasoned investment professionals, this webinar offers a wealth of insights. We thank all those who joined us live and hope this conversation continues to provide clarity and confidence as you steward your resources wisely.

CLICK HERE to register for and watch this educational webinar today!